David EdwardsFinals Fever – AFL Wrap
August 6th 2007 15:27
Well here it is. The final month before football fans of all codes gear up for the sport they love. The soccer and union supporters will get into full swing this year for A-League 3/ World Cup as they heat up in September, but the biggest action of course will come from the AFL and NRL leagues as they begin the finals frenzy that envelopes the eastern side, if not most of Australia.
Whilst the action and excitement of the competition swing around every year, and every year the leagues pre-empt how this finals series will be ‘like no other’, but this season they might actually be right.
Whatever code you follow, there is no doubt this year that the competition has been one of the tightest and hardest fought seasons in recent history. In AFL and NRL, where there is four and three rounds respectively left in the season, and there is still the question floating around about who’s in, who’s out, who will soar into the finals with high hopes out clutching the cup, and who will scrape in by the skin of their teeth.
Today we will focus on AFL, where with just four games left in the season, there is still an unbelievable 12 teams that are still mathematically possible in reaching the finals. Two sides will make the finals definitely (Geelong, sitting on top of the ladder three games clear on 60 points and the surprise packet of the competition Kangaroos, second on 48 points) and three sides are out of contention (Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond), but of the other 12 sides left in the running?
The sides ranked 3rd – 6th (Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Collingwood) are all sitting on 44 points, with Sydney (40 points) and Brisbane (38 points) rounding out the eight. However, four sides just out of a finals spot at the moment (St. Kilda on 38 points, Western Bulldogs 38 points, Adelaide and Essendon on 36 points each), and there are major contests in the next four rounds that will determine how the final ladder finishes up.
Obviously the two sides that will have to fight hard are Adelaide and Essendon, who will have to win at least three matches in the season to scrape by. Essendon might have a chance to steal the final spot as they face up against Fremantle (Away), Carlton (Home), Richmond (Home) and West Coast (Away). Two wins is likely, but if they can pull off a great win this week against the Dockers, or an even greater win against the Eagles in the final round then the eight place on the ladder might open up, but would need a whole lot of luck to make it happen. Adelaide have a far tougher road ahead, with Geelong (Away), Bulldogs (Home), Brisbane (Home) and Collingwood (Away), and even if they win three matches it will not be enough, and even four might not be enough to play on after the home and away season.
What is a more than likely scenario is that one the three sides higher up on 38 points will take the lower spot. Brisbane, St. Kilda and the Western Bulldogs are now on a do or die mission as each of these three sides have had a lifeline this year, all drawing one match that provides them with a vital two point buffer which could give them the boost they need. However out of these three sides, the only real candidate for the spot is Brisbane, as they have displayed in the past five weeks with vital wins over Kangaroos, Collingwood, Carlton, Melbourne and West Coast. Now with Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide and Geelong left of their season, if they can keep their winning form flowing for at least two, and possibly three matches (with Geelong the turning point in Round 22) they could grab eighth, possibly seventh and maybe even higher in the finals.
So where does that leave the rest of the competition? Sydney at seventh could struggle to keep their spot, and if they cannot pull off two to three wins against St Kilda, Brisbane, Collingwood and Hawthorn (which at this stage it could be unlikely), then they might go from premiership contenders to also rans in the space of a season. Collingwood, with an relatively easy run will be able to notch a minimum 2 wins, and even the remaining four to keep a spot close to the top four, even if they miss out by a whisker of a second chance draw. West Coast will be able to sort out a top four spot with their remaining matches, whilst Hawthorn could be fighting hard against sides wanting it more.
Finally what of Port Adelaide? They could be considered the joker of the top eight at the moment, as they could potentially upset the whole competition. Going strong at the moment, and have Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong and Fremantle they are tipped to win at least three, and maybe even all four of their remaining matches. If the Kangaroos slip slightly, then Port could move up to second, and from there it could be as simple as two matches away from another finals contention.
Of course this discussion could be turned over after next weekend, as every AFL fan knows the one thing you can tip in the league is to expect nothing. But with four rounds left, we are at the turning point of how the finals will shape up. As a result we present what we are could be expecting in four weeks time, and from there it is a whole new ball game.
Finals Fever Potential Ladder
1. Geelong 17 wins 68 points
2. West Coast 15 wins 60 points
3. Port Adelaide 15 wins, 60 points
4. Kangaroos 14 wins, 56 points
5. Collingwood 14 wins, 56 points
6. Hawthorn 13 wins, 52 points
7. Sydney 13 wins, 52 points
8. Brisbane 12 wins, 1 draw, 50 points
* St. Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Essendon and Adelaide will miss out of finals contention on 46, 46, 44 and 36 points respectively
Turn in tomorrow as we try and dismantle the NRL season as we begin the countdown to finals fever!
Until next time, sports minds.
Whilst the action and excitement of the competition swing around every year, and every year the leagues pre-empt how this finals series will be ‘like no other’, but this season they might actually be right.
Whatever code you follow, there is no doubt this year that the competition has been one of the tightest and hardest fought seasons in recent history. In AFL and NRL, where there is four and three rounds respectively left in the season, and there is still the question floating around about who’s in, who’s out, who will soar into the finals with high hopes out clutching the cup, and who will scrape in by the skin of their teeth.
Today we will focus on AFL, where with just four games left in the season, there is still an unbelievable 12 teams that are still mathematically possible in reaching the finals. Two sides will make the finals definitely (Geelong, sitting on top of the ladder three games clear on 60 points and the surprise packet of the competition Kangaroos, second on 48 points) and three sides are out of contention (Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond), but of the other 12 sides left in the running?
The sides ranked 3rd – 6th (Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Collingwood) are all sitting on 44 points, with Sydney (40 points) and Brisbane (38 points) rounding out the eight. However, four sides just out of a finals spot at the moment (St. Kilda on 38 points, Western Bulldogs 38 points, Adelaide and Essendon on 36 points each), and there are major contests in the next four rounds that will determine how the final ladder finishes up.
Obviously the two sides that will have to fight hard are Adelaide and Essendon, who will have to win at least three matches in the season to scrape by. Essendon might have a chance to steal the final spot as they face up against Fremantle (Away), Carlton (Home), Richmond (Home) and West Coast (Away). Two wins is likely, but if they can pull off a great win this week against the Dockers, or an even greater win against the Eagles in the final round then the eight place on the ladder might open up, but would need a whole lot of luck to make it happen. Adelaide have a far tougher road ahead, with Geelong (Away), Bulldogs (Home), Brisbane (Home) and Collingwood (Away), and even if they win three matches it will not be enough, and even four might not be enough to play on after the home and away season.
What is a more than likely scenario is that one the three sides higher up on 38 points will take the lower spot. Brisbane, St. Kilda and the Western Bulldogs are now on a do or die mission as each of these three sides have had a lifeline this year, all drawing one match that provides them with a vital two point buffer which could give them the boost they need. However out of these three sides, the only real candidate for the spot is Brisbane, as they have displayed in the past five weeks with vital wins over Kangaroos, Collingwood, Carlton, Melbourne and West Coast. Now with Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide and Geelong left of their season, if they can keep their winning form flowing for at least two, and possibly three matches (with Geelong the turning point in Round 22) they could grab eighth, possibly seventh and maybe even higher in the finals.
So where does that leave the rest of the competition? Sydney at seventh could struggle to keep their spot, and if they cannot pull off two to three wins against St Kilda, Brisbane, Collingwood and Hawthorn (which at this stage it could be unlikely), then they might go from premiership contenders to also rans in the space of a season. Collingwood, with an relatively easy run will be able to notch a minimum 2 wins, and even the remaining four to keep a spot close to the top four, even if they miss out by a whisker of a second chance draw. West Coast will be able to sort out a top four spot with their remaining matches, whilst Hawthorn could be fighting hard against sides wanting it more.
Finally what of Port Adelaide? They could be considered the joker of the top eight at the moment, as they could potentially upset the whole competition. Going strong at the moment, and have Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong and Fremantle they are tipped to win at least three, and maybe even all four of their remaining matches. If the Kangaroos slip slightly, then Port could move up to second, and from there it could be as simple as two matches away from another finals contention.
Of course this discussion could be turned over after next weekend, as every AFL fan knows the one thing you can tip in the league is to expect nothing. But with four rounds left, we are at the turning point of how the finals will shape up. As a result we present what we are could be expecting in four weeks time, and from there it is a whole new ball game.
Finals Fever Potential Ladder
1. Geelong 17 wins 68 points
2. West Coast 15 wins 60 points
3. Port Adelaide 15 wins, 60 points
4. Kangaroos 14 wins, 56 points
5. Collingwood 14 wins, 56 points
6. Hawthorn 13 wins, 52 points
7. Sydney 13 wins, 52 points
8. Brisbane 12 wins, 1 draw, 50 points
* St. Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Essendon and Adelaide will miss out of finals contention on 46, 46, 44 and 36 points respectively
Turn in tomorrow as we try and dismantle the NRL season as we begin the countdown to finals fever!
Until next time, sports minds.
| 39 |
| Vote |
Subscribe to this blog
